A Powerful Beginning
Now that the holidays are over, it is time for housing to shift
to the Winter Housing Market, when the inventory is flat,
demand rises, and the pace of the market rapidly heats up.
Winter Housing Market
Mixing a chronically low inventory with rising demand has always resulted in a much hotter housing market as winter progresses.
Active Listing
The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks increased by 609 homes, up 9%, and now sits at 7,436 homes, its second-lowest mid-January reading since tracking began in 2012, only behind 2022. In December, 24% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 861 less. Last year, there were 8,189 homes on the market, 753 extra homes, or 10% more. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 10,633, or 43% more.
Demand
Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 72 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 3%, and now totals 2,442. Last year, there were 2,269 pending sales, 7% fewer than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 3,663, or 50% more.
Los Angeles County Housing Summary
- With supply increasing faster than demand, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Los Angeles County listings at the current buying pace, increased from 86 to 91 days in the past couple of weeks. It was 108 days last year, slower than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 90 days, similar to today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the Expected Market Time increased from 58 to 60 days in the past couple of weeks. This range represents 28% of the active inventory and 43% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 62 to 68 days. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 25% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 90 to 87 days. This range represents 16% of the active inventory and 16% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 124 to 143 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 6% of demand.
- For homes priced between $2 million and $3 million, the Expected Market Time in the past couple of weeks increased from 152 to 156 days. For homes priced between $3 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 309 to 243 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $8 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 338 to 465 days. For homes priced above $8 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 772 to 1,407 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 27% of the inventory and 9% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.8% of all listings and 1.2% of demand. Only 43 foreclosures and 17 short sales are available to purchase today in all of Los Angeles County, 60 total distressed homes on the active market, down three in the past two weeks. Last year, there were 61 total distressed homes on the market, similar to today.
- There were 3,269 closed residential resales in December, 2% less than December 2022’s 3,336 closed sales. December was nearly unchanged compared to November 2023. The sales-to-list price ratio was 98.6% for all of Los Angeles County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.6% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.1%. That means that 99.3% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
Contact me if you would like to receive the complete report on Los Angeles housing.
