No Crash In Sight

It’s no secret that the housing market has been struggling as of late. Home values have been falling and the number of homes sold has slowed down significantly. This has led many to believe that we are on the verge of another housing crash, similar to the one that occurred in 2008. 
However, there are a number of factors that suggest that a crash is not likely to occur in the near future. Despite the current slowdown, the housing market is still in a much better place than it was during the last crash.

Not the Great Recession

An astonishing 41% of Americans think that the housing market is going to crash in the next 12 months, according to a survey conducted by LendingTree. Even more revealing is that 74% of those who believe there will be a crash think it will be as bad or worse than the "2008 housing market collapse." With so many convinced that a crash is inevitable, does that mean that housing will once again collapse?

ORANGE COUNTY ACTIVE LISTING INVENTORY 2021 & 2022 VS 2006 & 2007

The primary reason why a crash will not happen is that there simply are not enough available homes to purchase. Today's inventory is at 3,182 homes. While there were 57% fewer homes last year, 1,363, the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019) is 4,988 homes, 57% more than today. The inventory has been stuck at weak levels since the start of the pandemic. In comparing today's supply to the two years leading up to the Great Recession, 2006 and 2007, the difference is stunning. The inventory peak in 2006 was 16,006 homes, and it was 17,898 in 2007. The 2021 peak was 2,537 and in 2022 it was 4,069. In sharp contrast to today's inventory crisis with a deficiency of available homes, there was an inventory oversupply that led up to the Great Recession.

Demand and Supply

Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, plunged by 79 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 7%, and now totals 1,133, its lowest level since April 2020, the start of the pandemic. Last year, there were 1,944 pending sales, 72% more than today. The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 104 homes, down 3%, and now sits at 3,182, its lowest level since the start of June. In November, there were 32% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019), 718 less. Last year, there were 1,363 homes on the market, 1,819 fewer homes, or 57% less.