A Jump in Demand
After topping 7.5% in April, mortgage rates have declined to the low sixes and have remained there with duration, paving the way for an uncharacteristic late September rise in demand.
Lower Rates Impact Demand
Demand jumped by 10% in the past couple of weeks.
The latest Orange County housing reports highlights a significant rise in demand driven by declining mortgage rates, which have fallen from over 7.5% in April to a current rate of 6.21%. This reduction in rates has made home buying more affordable, prompting a 10% increase in pending sales from 1,413 to 1,554 in just two weeks—the first rise in demand for this period since 2012. In contrast, the previous two years saw declines in demand during the same timeframe. The improving affordability translates to substantial monthly savings for buyers, with payments on a $1 million home dropping nearly $749 compared to last year, underscoring the appeal of the current market conditions.
As demand surges, the Expected Market Time—the number of days it takes to sell all listings—has also decreased from 78 to 71 days, marking the largest drop for this time of year in two decades. Despite the overall low demand persisting since late 2022, the report indicates a notable shift as more buyers re-enter the market in response to lower mortgage rates. This trend represents a potential turning point for the Orange County housing market, suggesting an eventual recovery in home sales, particularly as economic factors indicate further declines in mortgage rates may be on the horizon.
Active listings
The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 29 homes, down 1%, and now sits at 3,666, its first drop since March and a strong indicator that a peak was reached a couple of weeks ago. In August, 31% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,083 less. Yet, 300 more sellers came on the market this August compared to August 2023. Last year, there were 2,340 homes on the market, 1,326 fewer homes, or 36% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,400, or 75% extra.
Demand
Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, jumped by 141 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 10%, and now totals 1,554, its largest increase since the start of February and its highest level since the beginning of July. Last year, there were 1,414 pending sales, 9% fewer. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,262, or 46% more.
Orange County Housing Summary
- The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 29 homes, down 1%, and now sits at 3,666, its first drop since March and a strong indicator that a peak was reached a couple of weeks ago. In August, 31% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,083 less. Yet, 300 more sellers came on the market this August compared to August 2023. Last year, there were 2,340 homes on the market, 1,326 fewer homes, or 36% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,400, or 75% extra.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, jumped by 141 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 10%, and now totals 1,554, its largest increase since the start of February and its highest level since the beginning of July. Last year, there were 1,414 pending sales, 9% fewer. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,262, or 46% more.
- With supply falling slightly and demand surging higher, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 78 to 71 days in the past couple of weeks, its most significant improvement since the start of February. It was 50 days last year, faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 86 days, slower than today.
- In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced below $750,000 decreased from 50 to 49 days. This range represents 16% of the active inventory and 24% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million decreased from 54 to 47 days. This range represents 14% of the active inventory and 21% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1 million and $1.25 million decreased from 62 to 50 days. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 16% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million decreased from 75 to 66 days. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 12% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million decreased from 103 to 84 days. This range represents 15% of the active inventory and 12% of demand.
- In the past two weeks, the expected market time for homes priced between $2 million and $4 million decreased from 111 to 108 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 257 to 199 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 295 to 391 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 33% of the inventory and 15% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.1% of all listings and 0.1% of demand. Only four foreclosures and one short sale are available today in Orange County, with five total distressed homes on the active market, down two from two weeks ago. Last year, six distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.
- There were 1,877 closed residential resales in August, down 5% compared to July 2023’s 1,979 and down 8% from July 2024. The sales-to-list price ratio was 99.0% for Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
Contact me for more information about the market and the strategies we use.
