Orange County Housing Market: Foreseen Wave
Buyers’ Window Before the Shift
This spring, Orange County buyers are in a unique position: more homes to choose from, slightly better mortgage rates, and a slower-paced market. But this calm won’t last much longer.
Why This Spring Favors Buyers
After years of fast-moving sales and low inventory, the market has become more balanced. There are fewer bidding wars and more time to make decisions. It’s the best spring for buyers since 2019 — a rare chance to shop without intense pressure.
What’s Ahead
Inventory is rising and will continue to grow through the spring as more sellers enter the market. Buyer demand is also climbing and typically peaks between April and May. But the real shift will come when mortgage rates fall closer to 6%–6.5%. That drop could trigger a surge of buyers who’ve been waiting on the sidelines — leading to faster sales, more competition, and price increases.
Buyer Tips
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Take advantage of the current calm: There’s more inventory and time to negotiate.
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Expect more homes soon: Spring brings a steady rise in new listings.
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Act before rates fall: When rates drop closer to 6%, buyer competition will heat up fast.
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Plan ahead: If you’re waiting, stay pre-approved and ready to move quickly.
Bottom Line: If you’re looking to buy in Orange County, this spring offers a window of opportunity before the market speeds up again.
Orange County Housing Summary
- The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks increased by 236 homes, up 7%, and now sits at 3,419. In February, 21% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 673 less. Yet 394 more sellers came on the market this February compared to February 2024. Last year, there were 2,084 homes on the market, 1,335 fewer homes, or 39% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 5,286, or 55% extra.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 96 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 6%, and now totals 1,665, its highest level since last May. Last year, there were 1,538 pending sales, 8% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,517, or 51% more.
- With supply rising slightly faster than demand, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, increased from 61 to 62 days in the past couple of weeks. Last year, it was 41 days, substantially faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 63 days, similar to today.
- In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced below $750,000 remained unchanged at 46 days. This range represents 16% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million increased from 39 to 40 days. This range represents 13% of the active inventory and 20% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1 million and $1.25 million increased from 39 to 42 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 15% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million decreased from 52 to 51 days. This range represents 11% of the active inventory and 13% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million remained unchanged at 69 days. This range represents 14% of the active inventory and 12% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2 million and $2.5 million decreased from 75 to 73 days. This range represents 7% of the active inventory and 6% of demand.
- In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million increased from 113 to 121 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 159 to 140 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 197 to 261 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, accounts for 29% of the inventory and 12% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.1% of all listings and 0.3% of demand. Only two foreclosures and two short sales are available today in Orange County, with four total distressed homes on the active market, down one from two weeks ago. Last year, five distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.
- There were 1,465 closed residential resales in February, up 3% compared to February 2024’s 1,425 and up 16% from January 2025. The sales-to-list price ratio was 99.6% for Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and Short sales accounted for 0.3%. That means that 99.6% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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