Prepare for Launch
It is officially the start of the Winter Market when buyer demand surges higher, inventory rises at a slower pace, and the market speeds up noticeably.
Orange County has officially shifted out of the holiday slowdown and into the Winter Market, a seasonal phase that consistently brings renewed buyer activity. As mid-January arrives, demand is beginning to rebound as buyers who paused during the holidays return to the market. While Orange County is not positioned for record-breaking sales, activity is expected to build steadily over the next several weeks. Inventory is rising, but at a slower pace than demand, creating conditions that typically lead to a faster-moving market as winter progresses.
This pattern plays out almost every year regardless of broader economic conditions. Buyer demand tends to surge sharply from mid-January through mid-March, while the number of new listings increases more gradually. Mortgage rates meaningfully lower than last year have improved affordability and are helping pull buyers off the sidelines, even though demand remains well below pre-pandemic norms. As more buyers re-enter the market and sellers continue to wait for spring, competition is expected to intensify, particularly for well-priced homes in desirable locations.
In the short term, the market has cooled slightly due to a brief rise in inventory and a temporary dip in demand, with detached homes and the luxury segment experiencing longer market times. However, this slowdown is typical for January and often precedes a period of steady improvement. As winter turns to early spring, buyer momentum is expected to strengthen across Orange County, gradually absorbing inventory and setting the stage for a more active selling season ahead.
Orange County Housing Summary
- INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks increased by 359 homes, up 13%, and now stands at 3,062. Last year, there were 2,759 homes on the market, 303 fewer homes, or 10% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,640, which is 52% higher. From January through December, 26% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID, 10,215 less. Yet 2,089 more sellers came on the market this year than last year, and 5,808 more than in 2023.
- DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 37 in the past two weeks, down 4%, and now stands at 914. Last year, there were 988 pending sales, 8% more than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 1,634, which is 79% higher.
- MARKET TIME: With the supply rising and demand falling, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, increased from 85 to 101 days in the past couple of weeks. It is the highest mid-January level since 2019. Last year, it was 84 days, faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 88 days, quicker than today.
- LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million increased from 132 to 145 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 170 to 249 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 283 to 365 days.
- DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.7% of demand. Three foreclosures and three short sales are available today in Orange County, bringing the total of distressed homes on the active market to six, up one from two weeks ago. Last year, six distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.
- CLOSED SALES: There were 1,641 closed residential resales in November, nearly identical to December 2024’s 1,634 sales, and up 10% from November 2025. The sales-to-list price ratio in Orange County was 98.0%. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.1%. That means that 99.8% of all sales were sellers with equity.
If you’re considering buying or selling in Orange County this year, winter can be a strategic window before spring competition ramps up. If you’d like a clear, local perspective on timing, pricing, and neighborhood-specific trends, feel free to reach out—I’m always happy to be a resource.
