The Buyer's Roadmap
The Orange County housing market continues to tilt toward buyers, with July data showing 61% of all closed sales sold below their original list price—the highest level since early 2023. This shift highlights how negotiations have become more favorable for buyers as affordability challenges linger and sellers adjust to the realities of today’s slower market.
While many homes are selling below asking, not all properties are seeing discounts. Homes in need of updates, in less desirable locations, or priced too high tend to sit on the market, with the median sale shaving off $32,000 from the asking price. On the other hand, well-priced, move-in-ready homes in desirable areas are moving quickly. About 26% of homes sold above list price, often in just eight days, with buyers paying an average of $30,000 over asking to beat out competition. This dynamic reflects a market where buyers can find negotiating leverage, but also need to be prepared to act fast on standout properties.
The broader market shows 5,011 homes currently listed, with 40% experiencing at least one price reduction. Demand has improved slightly, up 3% in recent weeks, thanks to mortgage rates settling at their lowest levels of 2025 (around 6.5–6.6%). The Expected Market Time now sits at 91 days, its slowest mid-August pace since 2014, but a slight improvement from 96 days earlier this summer. Condos and townhomes are moving faster at 85 days, while detached homes average 95 days. In the luxury segment, homes above $2.5 million are taking about 211 days to sell, holding steady despite Wall Street’s continued strength.
Overall, Orange County is offering buyers a clearer roadmap to navigate this evolving market. With many listings lingering, patient buyers have opportunities to negotiate, while sellers who want to attract multiple offers must focus on pricing right and presenting their homes in the best condition. Success for both sides comes down to knowing the data, understanding local trends, and aligning strategy with today’s market realities.
Orange County Housing Summary
- INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 60 homes, down 1%, and now stands at 5,011. Orange County may have reached its peak a couple of weeks ago, marking its first normal July-to-August peak since 2022. Last year, there were 3,490 homes on the market, 1,521 fewer homes, or 30% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 6,723, which is 34% higher. From January through July, 25% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019), 6,370 less. Yet, 2,425 more sellers came on the market this year than last, and 4,861 more compared to 2023.
- DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 48 homes, up 3%, and now stands at 1,652. Last year, there were 1,594 pending sales, 4% lower than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 2,574, which is 56% higher.
- MARKET TIME: With supply falling and demand rising, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 95 to 91 days in the past couple of weeks, still a high level for August. Last year, it was 66 days, substantially faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 79 days, which is also faster than today.
- LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million increased from 168 to 180 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 240 to 202 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 318 to 321 days.
- DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.1% of all listings and 0.3% of demand. Only four foreclosures and three short sales are available today in Orange County, with a total of seven distressed homes on the active market, down four from two weeks ago. Last year, eight distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.
- CLOSED SALES: There were 1,934 closed residential resales in July, down 5% compared to July 2024’s 2,034 and up 5% from June 2025. The sales-to-list price ratio was 97.5% for Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.05% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.05%. That means that 99.9% of all sales were sellers with equity.
Every neighborhood in Orange County tells a different story. If you’d like hyperlocal insights, tailored strategies, and a clear plan for buying or selling in today’s shifting market, let’s connect. Reach me at 949.572.9005
