Window of Opportunity
With mortgage rates at their lowest point in over a year and housing inventory up 18%, Orange County buyers are entering a rare moment to purchase before market activity intensifies again.
Why It’s a Great Time to Buy
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Rates below 6.5%: Mortgage rates have held under this level for nearly two months — the longest stretch since 2022 — and are expected to remain favorable through early 2026.
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Improved affordability: A buyer with a $7,000 monthly budget (principal and interest only) and 20% down can now afford a $1.412M home, up from $1.315M when rates were 7%. That’s $97,000 more purchasing power thanks to lower rates.
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More homes to choose from: There are 4,288 homes currently on the market — 18% more than last year and the highest level for this time of year since 2019.
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Motivated sellers: The average Expected Market Time is now 83 days, the slowest late-October pace since 2022. Sellers are increasingly open to price negotiations, rate buydowns, or covering buyer closing costs.
The Market Outlook
The market is currently in a balanced and favorable phase for buyers — before demand accelerates again in early 2026. As rates remain low and confidence builds, the spring season is expected to bring stronger competition and quicker sales.
Key Takeaway
The next few months represent a prime opportunity for Orange County buyers — combining low mortgage rates, expanded inventory, and negotiable sellers. Acting before the new year could secure a better deal and more options than waiting for the spring surge.
Orange County Housing Summary
- INVENTORY: The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 190 homes, down 4%, and now stands at 4,288, its largest drop of the year and its lowest level since April. Last year, there were 3,640 homes on the market, 648 fewer homes, or 15% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 6,010, which is 40% higher. From January through September, 26% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019), 8,347 less. Yet, 2,221 more sellers came on the market this year than last, and 5,333 more compared to 2023.
- DEMAND: Buyer demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 36, down 2%, and now stands at 1,546. Last year, there were 1,572 pending sales, 2% more than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 2,180, which is 41% higher.
- MARKET TIME: With the inventory falling at a faster pace than demand, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 86 to 83 days in the past couple of weeks, its fastest pace since April. It is the highest October level since 2022. Last year, it was 69 days, faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019) was 85 days, similar to today.
- LUXURY: In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million increased from 151 to 152 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time remained unchanged at 188 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 431 to 278 days.
- DISTRESSED HOMES: Short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.2% of demand. Only four foreclosures and four short sales are available today in Orange County, with a total of eight distressed homes on the active market, up one from two weeks ago. Last year, five distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.
- CLOSED SALES: There were 1,805 closed residential resales in September, 11% higher than September 2024’s 1,622 sales, but down 4% from August 2025. The sales-to-list price ratio in Orange County was 97.8%. Foreclosures accounted for 0.2% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.8% of all sales were sellers with equity.
If you’re considering buying or upgrading within Orange County, this is the moment to start exploring.
Let’s review local market data, new listings, and financing options to help you take advantage of this window of opportunity.
