A POWERFUL BEGINNING
Now that the holidays are over, it is time for housing to shift
to the Winter Housing Market, when the inventory is flat,
demand rises, and the pace of the market rapidly heats up.
Winter Housing Market
Mixing a chronically low inventory with rising demand has always resulted in a much hotter housing market as winter progresses.
Active Listing
The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks increased by 115 homes, up 6%, and now sits at 1,900, still its second-lowest mid-January reading since tracking began in 2004, only behind 2022. In December, 36% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 532 less. Last year, there were 2,536 homes on the market, 636 more homes, or 33% higher. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,739, or 149% extra, more than double.
Demand
Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, soared higher by 149 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 17%, and now totals 1,010. Last year, there were 939 pending sales, 7% fewer than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 1,710, or 69% more.
Orange County Housing Summary
- With demand soaring compared to the smaller rise in supply, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 62 to 56 days in the past couple of weeks. It was 81 days last year, slower than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 86 days, also slower than today.
- For homes priced below $750,000, the Expected Market Time increased from 39 to 42 days. This range represents 20% of the active inventory and 27% of demand.
- For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 43 to 32 days. This range represents 14% of the active inventory and 25% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1 million and $1.25 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 47 to 41 days. This range represents 9% of the active inventory and 13% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 55 to 53 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 11% of demand.
- For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 72 to 66 days. This range represents 12% of the active inventory and 11% of demand.
- For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time in the past two weeks decreased from 105 to 89 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 357 to 165 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 374 to 396 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 35% of the inventory and 13% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.4% of all listings and 0.5% of demand. Only six foreclosures and two short sales are available today in Orange County, with eight total distressed homes on the active market, down two from two weeks ago. Last year, 11 distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.
- There were 1,310 closed residential resales in December, down 6% compared to December 2022’s 1,393. December marked an 8% drop compared to November 2023. The sales-to-list price ratio was 98.1% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and there were no closed short sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
"To receive the complete Orange County Housing Report, please contact me."
