'Tis the Season
Housing has transitioned to the slowest time of the year, the Holiday Market, from mid-November through the first couple of weeks of the New Year.
The Los Angeles housing market has entered its slowest phase of the year, the Holiday Market, which typically runs from mid-November to early January. During this period, both inventory and demand decline significantly as buyers and sellers focus on holiday festivities rather than real estate transactions. Sellers are less likely to list their homes, and many remove unsold properties from the market, leading to a seasonal drop in available inventory. Similarly, buyer activity slows as house hunting takes a back seat.
Despite these trends, the current inventory and demand levels are higher than last year but align closely with pre-pandemic norms. The Expected Market Time, reflecting the balance between supply and demand, is not expected to change much, continuing a pattern established during the pandemic. Overall, the seasonal slowdown is a predictable, cyclical occurrence, with the housing market poised to regain momentum after the New Year.
Los Angeles County Housing Summary
- The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 280 homes, down 2%, and now sits at 11,508 homes. In October, 15% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,153 less. Yet, 825 more sellers came on the market this year compared to October 2023. Last year, there were 8,560 homes on the market, 2,948 fewer homes, or 26% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 11,752, or 2% more.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 58 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 2%, and now totals 3,440. Last year, there were 3,009 pending sales, 13% fewer. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 4,591, or 33% more.
- With supply and demand falling at a similar rate, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Los Angeles County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 101 to 100 days in the past couple of weeks. It was 85 days last year, faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 79 days, also faster than today.
- In the past couple of weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced below $750,000 increased from 83 to 85 days. This range represents 29% of the active inventory and 34% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million remained unchanged at 69 days. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 28% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1 million and $1.5 million remained unchanged at 93 days. This range represents 17% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million decreased from 137 to 125 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 8% of demand.
- In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2 million and $3 million decreased from 172 to 155 days. The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $3 million and $4 million increased from 171 to 209 days. The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $4 million and $8 million decreased from 315 to 310 days. The Expected Market Time for homes priced above $8 million decreased from 1,014 to 872 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 24% of the inventory and 10% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 0.8% of all listings and 0.7% of demand. Only 64 foreclosures and 30 short sales are available to purchase today in all of Los Angeles County, with 94 total distressed homes on the active market, up six from two weeks ago. Last year, there were 59 total distressed homes on the market, slightly fewer than today.
- There were 4,211 closed residential resales in October, up 16% compared to October 2023’s 3,636 closed sales, and up 12% from September 2024. The sales-to-list price ratio was 99.2% for all of Los Angeles County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.1%. That means that 99.5% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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