A Holiday Pause

The Holiday Market is when the inventory drops, demand dives, and the Expected Market Time rises slightly. Irrespective of the economic situation, without fail, the cyclical slowdown succeeds. Last year the number of available houses was already at historically low levels all year. After hitting the lowest point in the record, in July, it was hard to envision the inventory could fall at the end of the year.

Holiday Market

The number of inventory seasonally drops because not a lot of owners come on the market at the end of the year. The fewest number of sellers enter the fray in December, 64% less than in May, the peak month with the greatest number of new sellers. The second fewest come on in November, 46% less than May's peak. Moreover, a lot of sellers who have not found success, primarily due to price, opt to throw in the towel and remove their homes off the market. The combination of those two forces, fewer new FOR-SALE signs, and unsuccessful sellers, cause the inventory to plummet until the start of the New Year.

Demand and Supply

Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 10 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 1%, and now totals 1,212, its first rise since the last two weeks of August. Last year, there were 2,221 pending sales, 83% more than today. The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks plunged by 295 homes, down 8%, and now sits at 3,286, its lowest level since the start of June. In October, there were 35% fewer homes that came on the market compared to the 3-year average prior to COVID (2017 to 2019), 1,042 less. Last year, there were 1,457 homes on the market, 1,829 fewer homes, or 56% less.