Orange County Housing Report:
Still Waiting, No Offers
Although many sellers approach the housing market as if it is as hot as 2023 or early spring of this year, they quickly realize that it is not instant.
The Orange County housing market has notably cooled down since the peak of activity earlier this year. Currently, 54% of active listings have been on the market for at least 30 days, with nearly a third remaining unsold for over two months. This shift from a hot Seller's Market to a more Balanced Market underscores the importance of strategic pricing. Sellers are finding that their initial high expectations of quick sales are not aligning with the current market conditions, which require a more patient approach.
The increase in the number of homes for sale has contributed significantly to the extended Expected Market Time, which has risen from 37 days in March to 66 days today. While demand remains relatively stable, the 74% increase in active inventory—from 2,010 in March to 3,490 now—has created a more competitive environment. Sellers are advised to carefully consider their pricing strategies and home conditions to attract buyers in this evolving market.
Active Listings
The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks increased by 64 homes, up 2%, and now sits at 3,490, its highest level since November 2022. In July, 27% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 996 less. Yet, 441 more sellers came on the market this July compared to July 2023. Last year, there were 2,434 homes on the market, 1,056 fewer homes, or 30% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,723, or 93% extra, nearly double.
Demand
Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 64 pending sales in the past two weeks, up 4%, and now totals 1,594, its largest rise since April. Last year, there were 1,576 pending sales, 1% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,574, or 62% more.
Orange County Housing Summary
- With demand climbing faster than supply, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, decreased from 67 to 66 days in the past couple of weeks. It was 46 days last year, faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 79 days, a bit slower than today.
- In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced below $750,000 increased from 45 to 49 days. This range represents 16% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million decreased from 42 to 40 days. This range represents 14% of the active inventory and 23% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1 million and $1.25 million decreased from 49 to 42 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 15% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million decreased from 57 to 55 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 12% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million remained unchanged at 76 days. This range represents 15% of the active inventory and 13% of demand.
- In the past two weeks, the expected market time for homes priced between $2 million and $4 million decreased from 114 to 108 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 170 to 194 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 656 to 527 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 35% of the inventory and 15% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.3% of demand. Only five foreclosures and three short sales are available today in Orange County, with eight total distressed homes on the active market, down one from two weeks ago. Last year, seven distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.
- There were 2,034 closed residential resales in July, up 14% compared to July 2023’s 1,784 and up 12% from June 2024. The sales-to-list price ratio was 99.2% for Orange County. Short sales accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and there were no foreclosure sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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