'Tis the Season
Housing has transitioned to the slowest time of the year, the Holiday Market, from mid-November through the first couple of weeks of the New Year.
The Orange County housing market has entered its annual Holiday Market, the slowest period of the year, spanning from mid-November through early January. During this time, both inventory and buyer demand drop sharply as seasonal distractions like holiday gatherings and shopping take precedence. Few new listings hit the market, and many unsold homes are withdrawn, leading to a significant reduction in available inventory.
Buyer activity also slows considerably, with fewer options and many pausing their home search until after the holidays. Despite these seasonal shifts, the Expected Market Time, which reflects the balance of supply and demand, is expected to remain steady, continuing a trend observed since the pandemic. The market typically regains momentum in the New Year as holiday distractions fade.
Orange County Housing Summary
- The active listing inventory in the past couple of weeks decreased by 158 homes, down 4%, and now sits at 3,358, its lowest level since the start of July and its largest drop of the year. In October, 21% fewer homes came on the market compared to the 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019), 743 less. Yet, 486 more sellers came on the market this October compared to October 2023. Last year, there were 2,309 homes on the market, 1,049 fewer homes, or 31% less. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 5,359, or 60% extra.
- Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, decreased by 95 pending sales in the past two weeks, down 7%, and now totals 1,363. Last year, there were 1,173 pending sales, 14% fewer. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 1,969, or 44% more.
- With demand falling faster than supply, the Expected Market Time, the number of days to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace, increased from 72 to 74 days in the past couple of weeks. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 85 days, slower than today.
- In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced below $750,000 increased from 54 to 57 days. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 23% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million increased from 53 to 60 days. This range represents 15% of the active inventory and 19% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1 million and $1.25 million decreased from 50 to 47 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 15% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million decreased from 62 to 57 days. This range represents 10% of the active inventory and 13% of demand.
- The Expected Market Time for homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million increased from 73 to 91 days. This range represents 14% of the active inventory and 11% of demand.
- In the past two weeks, the expected market time for homes priced between $2 million and $4 million decreased from 123 to 104 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 217 to 182 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 322 to 359 days.
- The luxury end, all homes above $2 million, account for 33% of the inventory and 19% of demand.
- Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, comprised only 0.2% of all listings and 0.3% of demand. Only four foreclosures and two short sales are available today in Orange County, with six total distressed homes on the active market, down three from two weeks ago. Last year, eight distressed homes were on the market, similar to today.
- There were 1,842 closed residential resales in October, up 13% compared to October 2023’s 1,632 and up 14% from September 2024. The sales-to-list price ratio was 100.0% for Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for 0.1% of all closed sales, and there were no short sales. That means that 99.9% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.
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