Southern California Real Estate Forecast for 2024

Southern California Real Estate Forecast for 2024

  • Hamid Koochak
  • 12/21/23

Real Estate Forecast for 2024: Insights for Buyers and Sellers

Overview: As we look ahead to 2024, the real estate market in Southern California and across the United States is expected to undergo various shifts influenced by both market conditions and recent decisions made by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). Here's a breakdown of the anticipated scenarios, trends, and how these might affect your home buying and selling plans:

Market Conditions & Federal Reserve Impact: Understanding how the housing market interacts with inflation and Federal Reserve policies is crucial for both buyers and sellers.

  • The Federal Funds Rate Hikes Have Stalled: Recent indications suggest that the Fed’s efforts to control inflation have seen success, leading to a reduction in the frequency and magnitude of interest rate hikes. The New York Times (NYT) reports that the Fed officials are considering cutting borrowing costs multiple times in the upcoming year. This potential shift indicates the Fed's confidence in the improving economy and inflation, potentially resulting in lower mortgage rates and enhanced affordability.

  • Mortgage Rates Are Coming Down: Mortgage rates, affected by various economic factors including inflation and Fed decisions, are likely to continue their downward trajectory following the Fed's pause in interest rate hikes. Despite potential volatility, expert forecasts hint at a possible continuation of decreasing rates in 2024. This could bolster affordability for prospective buyers and offer more flexibility for homeowners considering selling.

Forecast Scenarios for 2024:

  1. Spring Slowdown (40% likelihood):

    • Anticipating an economy slowdown during spring, with mortgage rates dropping between six and 6.5%.
    • A modest rise in inventory in SoCal could trigger increased demand, leading to bidding wars and rates dropping below 6% in the latter half of 2024.
  2. Summer Cooling (50% likelihood):

    • A likely economy cooldown by summer, resulting in increased inventory.
    • Buyers may show cautious behavior in spring but increase activity in summer, with rates potentially dropping below 6% by year-end.
  3. Autumn Slowdown (10% likelihood):

    • A more conservative scenario anticipating a resilient economy, leading to cautious spending.
    • Inventory might increase, but buyer activity might not pick up until autumn. Rates could remain above 6% throughout the year in this scenario.

Conclusion: No matter the scenario that unfolds, an overall trend suggests an increase in home sales in the coming year. The housing market is poised for changes in 2024, influenced by the Fed's decisions and market fluctuations. Mortgage rates are likely to continue declining due to the Fed's stance on interest rates.


For expert insights on how these changes impact you as a buyer or seller, rely on a trustworthy real estate expert. I'm here to provide tailored advice and help you navigate the evolving real estate landscape. Contact me for personalized guidance and make informed decisions for your home journey.

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